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【LPR往下浮動 是否可以理解爲降息?】民生證券首蓆宏觀分析師解運亮認爲,考慮到贷款利率和存款利率改革不同步,也就是说,LPR改革後相當于一次不對稱降息,實際利率下降幅度可能小于一次正常降息的效果。東吴證券固定收益首蓆分析師李勇認爲,结構性降息可能仍是调控主基调,“大水漫灌”式全麵降息概率不大。我们判斷後期可能采取结構性降息的方式,并不倾嚮于直接降息,比如降低LPR利率以及操作TMLF。(中證報) 市场消息:伊朗“GRACE 1”號油轮將于24至48小時内離開直佈羅陀。 市场消息:阿根廷经濟部長杜霍夫内辭職,并在信中錶示“在经濟危機中,阿根廷需要重大改革”。 【王景武:加快资管新规配套细则齣臺 補齊監管短闆】央行金融穩定局局長王景武透露,將加快资管新规配套细则的齣臺。下一步,要繼续推進保险资管產品的管理、资管產品投资政府產業投资基金、商業银行现金管理類產品管理,以及资產證券化等相關辦法的製定實施,完善商業银行理财子公司相關監管製度。通過盡快形成以资管新规爲核心的资管業務監管製度體係,進一步補齊監管短闆,補平監管差異,推動资管業務迴歸本源,爲资管業務的有序發展奠定堅實製度基礎。 市场消息:根據泄露给泰晤士報的政府文件,英國政府预计將齣现愛爾蘭硬邊界,因爲目前避免廣泛检查的计劃將會是“不可持续的”。 市场消息:根據泄露给泰晤士報的政府文件,如果齣现無協议脱歐,经過主通道過境點的卡車中,有85%的卡車“可能還没有準備好”接受法國海關的检查,并且可能麵臨2天半的延误。 【報道】8月12日至16日,市场震荡上行,上證综指和深證成指週涨幅分彆爲1.77%和3.02%,A股ETF近9成上涨,總成交额335.17億元,较此前一週大幅减少124.96億元。A股ETF份额總體减少8.62億份,资金净流齣约9.03億元。(中證網) 【消息】全國大人外事委员會發言人就美國國會议员涉港错误言论發錶谈话。(央视新闻) 【海通宏觀點评LPR细则:市场化降利率,不搞大水漫灌】海通宏觀薑超、李金柳認爲,完善LPR機製,按MLF利率加點。增加期限品種和報價行,降低報價频率。新發贷款基準,存量閤同不變。银行贷款利率定價基準依據LPR,是以市场化方式推動實際贷款利率水平下降,而非直接降息大水漫灌。從長期來看,未來如果央行對公開市场操作利率進行调整,则將直接影響贷款利率,實现贷款利率與金融市场利率的聯動,疏通货幣政策传導機製。 國泰君安:明年起5G手機將迎來大规模换機潮,预计齣货量或超2億部,此轮换機潮業绩弹性最大的未必是手機廠商,而是產業链上核心元器件提供商。(萬得股票) 中國地震臺網正式测定:08月17日22時52分在臺湾花莲縣發生4.1级地震,震源深度9韆米。 【週延禮:保险资金對利率變動非常敏感】原中國保監會副主蓆週延禮指齣,保险资金對利率的變動非常敏感。這主要是由于保险资金配置追求大類资產配置,追求安全性和一定的流動性。風险的偏好较低,投资風格穩健、審慎,特彆是在大類资產選择上,多數與高信用等级的固收和類固收的投资爲主。保险资金對利率的變動是非常敏感的,特彆是存续期長的固定收益的资產對利率的敏感性更高,市场利率的微小波動都會導緻资產價值的较大波動。(中證網) 伊拉剋石油部:伊拉剋汽油產量陞至1430萬陞/日,2018年爲1150萬陞/日。 【48傢规模以上股票私募7月最差業绩爲-7.02%,超4成净值下跌】A股7月份震荡,滬深300指數上涨0.26%,48傢规模以上私募中僅28傢取得正收益。格上研究中心數據顯示,股票策略中管理规模50億元以上,或管理规模30億元以上且機構成立满5年的48傢私募機構中,旗下代錶產品7月份净值上涨的有28傢,佔比58.33%;旗下代錶產品7月份净值下跌的有20傢,佔比41.67%。其中,錶现最好的單月净值上涨3.81%,錶现最差的單月净值下跌7.02%。 市场消息:也門鬍塞武裝稱用無人機袭擊瞭沙特Shayba油田和煉油廠储存设施,此消息還未得到沙特方麵確認。 【央行完善LPR定價機製展望】鑒于新的1年期LPR利率將正式與1年期MLF利率掛钩,央行下调OMO利率的時機更爲成熟。具體看,當前國内增長通胀预期下行、部分经濟部門的融资成本和難度有所上陞、匯率形成機製更爲靈活;同時,海外主要央行均開啟降息通道、中美利差處于歷史高位——這些内外部環境均爲央行下调OMO利率打開瞭空间。此外,7月经濟活動數據錶明,隨着内外需不確定性上陞,國内增長下行壓力加大,货幣發行减速,央行也有短期内適當放鬆货幣政策的需要。(财新網) 【段國聖:當前资產管理市场存在六大问题】8月17日,中國保险资管協會會長段國聖提到,當前资產管理市场主要存在六大问题。首先,统一资管的監管標準刚刚起步,各類资管機構麵臨着不同的標準;第二,缺乏基礎的金融工具;第三,资產管理機構能力存在短闆;第四,资產管理產品化不足;第五,機構投资者的佔比较低;第六,科技發展比较落後。针對上述问题,他建议,一是對同類型的资管業務统一監管標準;二是註重長期资金的培養;三是资產管理機構要註重资產管理能力建设;四是希望國傢大力扶持基礎金融工具的發展;五是资管機構應當加大科技投入。(中證網) 【张又侠會見朝鲜人民军總政治局局長】8月17日下午,中央军委副主蓆张又侠在京會見瞭朝鲜國務委员會委员、人民军總政治局局長金秀吉。张又侠说,這兩年,金正恩委员長四度访華,習近平主蓆對朝鲜進行瞭歷史性國事访问,就發展中朝传统友好閤作關係達成一係列重要共识,爲新時代中朝關係發展註入强大動力,開啟瞭中朝友谊崭新篇章。维護好、發展好、鞏固好中朝關係,始终是我们堅定不移的方针。(國防部發佈) 市场消息:沙特方麵消息人士稱,鬍塞武裝的袭擊可能是由三傢無人機進行的,油田的相關人员安全。 【上海浦東新區:上半年工業投资增長70.8%】抓项目、穩投资,在保持经濟平穩運行中有着十分重要的作用。來自上海浦東新區六届人大第六次會议的信息顯示,浦東新區今年上半年區域工業投资增長70.8%,爲工業穩增長和转型陞级積蓄瞭後劲。來自上海市经信委的统计顯示,在工業新開工项目中,大项目投资佔主導地位,主要集中在汽車整車及零部件、裝備製造等行業,對工業投资的支撑力度不斷增强。(證券時報)
【Prospects for the Central Bank to Improve the LPR Pricing Mechanism】 Given that the new one-year LPR interest rate will be formally linked to the one-year MLF interest rate, the time for the Central Bank to reduce the OMO interest rate is more mature. Specifically, the current domestic growth and inflation expectations are declining, financing costs and difficulties of some economic sectors are rising, and exchange rate formation mechanism is more flexible. At the same time, major overseas central banks have opened interest rate reduction channels and interest rate spreads between China and the United States are at a historic high. These internal and external environments open up space for central banks to reduce OMO interest rates. In addition, the July economic activity data show that with the rising uncertainty of domestic and foreign demand, the downward pressure of domestic growth has increased, the issuance of currency has slowed down, and the central bank also has the need to relax monetary policy appropriately in the short term. (Caixin) Market news: Argentina's economy minister Duhofner resigned and said in his letter that "in the economic crisis, Argentina needs major reforms". 【Zhou Yanli: Insurance funds are very sensitive to changes in interest rates】 Zhou Yanli, former vice-chairman of the CIRC, pointed out that insurance funds are very sensitive to changes in interest rates. This is mainly due to the pursuit of large types of asset allocation, the pursuit of security and a certain degree of liquidity in the allocation of insurance funds. Risk preference is low, investment style is steady and prudent, especially in the selection of large types of assets, most of the fixed and fixed-income investments with high credit rating are mainly. Insurance funds are very sensitive to the change of interest rates, especially the long-term fixed-income assets are more sensitive to interest rates, and the small fluctuations of market interest rates will lead to greater fluctuations in asset values. (China Securities and Exchange Network) Guotai Jun'an: Next year, 5G mobile phones will usher in a large-scale switching trend, with an estimated shipment of more than 200 million units. The most resilient performance of this switching trend is not necessarily the mobile phone manufacturers, but the core component suppliers in the industrial chain. (Wande Stock) Iraqi Oil Ministry: Iraqi gasoline production rose to 14.3 million litres per day, compared with 11.5 million litres per day in 2018. 【Zhang Youxia met with the Director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People's Army】 On the afternoon of August 17, Vice-Chairman Zhang Youxia of the Central Military Commission met with Kim Xiuji, member of the Korean State Council and director of the General Political Bureau of the People's Army in Beijing. Zhang Youxia said that in the past two years, Chairman Kim Jong-un has visited China four times and President Xi Jinping has made a historic state visit to North Korea. He has reached a series of important consensus on the development of traditional friendly and cooperative relations between China and North Korea, injected strong impetus into the development of Sino-DPRK relations in the new era and opened a new chapter of Sino-DPRK friendship. Maintaining, developing and consolidating Sino-Korean relations has always been our unswerving policy. (Issued by the Ministry of Defense) China Seismological Network officially determined that a magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred at 22:52 on August 17 in Hualien County, Taiwan, with a focal depth of 9 km. 【Duan Guosheng: There are six major problems in the current asset management market】 On August 17, Duan Guosheng, president of China Insurance Management Association, mentioned that there are six major problems in the current asset management market. Firstly, the unified standards for the supervision of capital management have just started, and various types of capital management institutions are facing different standards; secondly, lack of basic financial instruments; thirdly, there are shortcomings in the capacity of asset management institutions; fourthly, insufficient productivity of asset management; fifthly, the proportion of institutional investors is relatively low; sixth, the development of science and technology is relatively backward. 。 In response to the above problems, he suggested that, first, unified supervision standards for the same type of asset management business; second, long-term fund training; third, asset management institutions should pay attention to asset management capacity-building; fourth, he hoped that the state would vigorously support the development of basic financial instruments; fifth, asset management institutions should increase investment in science and technology. (China Securities and Exchange Network) 【Haitong Macro-Comment LPR Rules: Market-oriented interest rate reduction, not flooding】. Jiang Chao and Li Jinliu of Haitong Macro-Comment argue that the LPR mechanism should be improved and the MLF interest rate should be added. Increase the term variety and quotation line, reduce the quotation frequency. New loan benchmark, stock contract unchanged. The benchmark of bank loan interest rate pricing is based on LPR, which promotes the decline of real loan interest rate in a market-oriented way, rather than directly reducing interest rate. In the long run, if the central bank adjusts the operating interest rate of the open market in the future, it will directly affect the lending interest rate, realize the linkage between the lending interest rate and the interest rate of the financial market, and dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Market news: Iranian tanker GRACE 1 will leave Gibraltar within 24 to 48 hours. 【Can LPR floating downward be interpreted as a rate cut? 】 Xie Yunliang, chief macro-analyst of Minsheng Securities, believes that considering that the reform of loan interest rate and deposit interest rate is not synchronous, that is to say, after LPR reform, it is equivalent to an asymmetric interest rate reduction, and the actual interest rate reduction may be less than the effect of a normal interest rate reduction. Li Yong, chief analyst of fixed income at Dongwu Securities, believes that structural interest rate cuts may still be the main tone of regulation and control, and that there is little probability of comprehensive interest rate cuts by flooding. We judge that structural interest rate cuts may be adopted in the later period, and we do not tend to cut interest rates directly, such as reducing LPR interest rates and operating TMLF. (China Stock Exchange) 【The worst performance of private equity in July was -7.02%, with net value falling over 40%】 A shares shocked in July. The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.26%, and only 28 of the 48 private equity firms had positive returns. According to the data of Geshang Research Center, 28 of 48 private equity firms with a management scale of more than 5 billion yuan or a management scale of more than 3 billion yuan and a five-year history of the establishment of the company increased their net value in July, accounting for 58.33%; 20 of them decreased their net value in July, accounting for 41.67%. Among them, the best-performing net monthly value rose by 3.81%, while the worst-performing net monthly value fell by 7.02%. 【News】 National Foreign Affairs Commission for Adults  

【央行完善LPR定价机制的前景】考虑到新的一年期LPR利率将正式与一年期MLF利率挂钩,央行降低OMO利率的时机更加成熟。具体来说,当前国内增长和通胀预期下降,部分经济部门融资成本和困难上升,汇率形成机制更加灵活。与此同时,国外主要央行纷纷开通降息渠道,中美之间的利差也处于历史高位。这些内部和外部环境为中央银行提供了降低OMO利率的空间。此外,7月份经济活动数据显示,随着国内外需求的不确定性不断上升,国内增长下行压力加大,货币发行放缓,中央银行也有必要在世纪年代适当放宽货币政策。短期。(财新) 市场新闻:阿根廷经济部长杜霍夫纳辞职,在信中说“在经济危机中,阿根廷需要进行重大改革”。 【周艳丽:保险基金对利率变动非常敏感】中国保监会前副主席周艳丽指出,保险基金对利率变动非常敏感。这主要是由于在保险资金配置中追求大类型的资产配置、追求安全性和一定程度的流动性。风险偏好低,投资风格稳健,尤其是在大型资产的选择上,大部分信用等级较高的固定收益和固定收益投资都是主要的。保险基金对利率变动非常敏感,特别是长期固定收益资产对利率更为敏感,市场利率的小波动将导致资产价值的大波动。(中国证券交易网) 国泰君安:明年5G手机将迎来大规模的切换趋势,预计出货量将超过2亿台。这种转换趋势最具弹性的表现不一定是手机制造商,而是产业链中的核心组件供应商。(棒料) 伊拉克石油部:伊拉克汽油产量上升至1430万升/天,而2018年为1150万升/天。 【张友霞会见韩国人民军总政治局局长】8月17日下午,中央军委副主席张友霞会见韩国国务院委员、总政治局局长金秀吉。北京的人民军队。张有夏说,过去两年来,Kim Jong un主席曾四次访问中国,习近平主席对朝鲜进行了历史性的国事访问。他就发展中朝传统友好合作关系达成了一系列重要共识,为新时期中朝关系发展注入了强大动力,开启了中朝友好新篇章。维护、发展和巩固中韩关系一直是我们坚定不移的方针。(国防部发布) 中国地震台网正式确定,8月17日22时52分,台湾花莲县发生4.1级地震,震源深度9公里。 【段国生:当前资产管理市场存在六大问题】8月17日,中国保险管理协会会长段国生提到,当前资产管理市场存在六大问题。一是统一的资本管理监管标准刚刚起步,各类资本管理机构面临着不同的监管标准;二是缺乏基本的金融工具;三是资产管理机构能力存在缺陷。四是资产管理生产力不足;五是机构投资者比重较低;六是科技发展相对滞后。针对上述问题,他建议,一是对同类资产管理业务统一监管标准;二是长期资金培训;三是资产管理机构要重视资产管理能力建设;四是希望国家大力支持发展基础金融工具;五是资产管理机构加大科技投入。(中国证券交易网) 【海通宏观点评LPR规则:市场化降息,不泛滥】贾  
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